Saturday, July 20, 2013

NEVADA FOOTBALL: 2013 PRE-SEASON REPORT CARD


PUBLICATION ORDER: Sections of the Pre-Season Report Card are published in the following order: (1) Schedule; (2) Coaching; (3) Momentum (4) Discipline On The Field (i.e. penalties); (5) Turnovers; (6) Special Teams; (7) Defense; (8) Offense; and (9) Summary.


TURNOVERS

Rationale: The past does not always predict the future, but the past often predicts the future

Team Recovered Turnovers (i.e. Gained Turnovers)
[2012 Team Statistic: Recovered Fumbles] 12 total recovered fumbles (0.9 pgp)
[2012 Team Statistic: Caught Interceptions] 6 total caught interceptions (0.5 pgp)
[2012 Team Statistic: Combined Recovered Turnovers (fumbles plus interceptions)] 18 total combined recovered turnovers (1.4 pgp)

Team Lost Turnovers
[2012 Team Statistic: Lost Fumbles] 11 total lost fumbles (0.8 pgp)
[2012 Team Statistic: Thrown Interceptions] 10 total thrown interceptions (0.8 pgp)
[2012 Team Statistic: Combined Lost Turnovers (fumbles plus interceptions)] 21 total combined lost turnovers (1.6 pgp)

NOTE: Cody Fajardo (Jr.) is a returning starter at quarterback [2012 Individual Statistics: 9 interceptions thrown in 367 passing attempts (2.5%)]

Team Combined Net Turnovers [(Recovered Turnovers) minus (Lost Turnovers)]
[2012 Team Statistic: Combined Net Turnovers] negative 3 combined net turnovers (negative 0.2 pgp)

Commentary: Last season, Nevada’s offense had very serious problems with fumbles throughout the season, but was able to recover many of their own offensive fumbles

GRADE (Turnovers): C minus


DISCIPLINE ON THE FIELD

Rationale: The past does not always predict the future, but the past often predicts the future

Team Penalties
[2012 Team Statistic] 86 total penalties (6.6 pgp)
[2012 Team Statistic] 819 total penalty yards (63.0 pgp)

Commentary: Last season, Nevada had very serious problems with penalties in the first few games, but made improvements as the season progressed

GRADE (Discipline on the field): C plus


MOMENTUM

Last season, Nevada had an overall record of 7-6, but lost 5 of their final 6 games, including an embarrassing 48-49 loss against Arizona in the New Mexico Bowl in which Nevada coaches and players quit after the 3rd quarter.  Nevada coaches and players should have been force fed humble pie during the entire trip home from the New Mexico Bowl.

Nevada has a new coaching staff this season.

GRADE (Momentum): D minus


COACHING

Head Coach
Current Tenure as Head Coach at Nevada: Brian Polian is in his first season as the Head Coach at Nevada.  Polian is in the difficult situation of replacing the legendary Chris Ault.

Last Coaching Position: Special Teams Coordinator and Tight Ends Coach at Texas A&M (2012)

Prior Experience as Head Coach: None

Other Notable Facts: Polian has coached at Notre Dame (2005-2009) and Stanford (2010-2011).  Polian has extensive experience as a Special Teams Coordinator.  Polian has coached in 4 BCS Bowl Games (2005 Fiesta Bowl, 2006 Sugar Bowl, 2010 Orange Bowl, and 2011 Fiesta Bowl).  Polian is among the best recruiters in the nation.

Commentary: Polian is only 38 years old and among the youngest head coaches at the FBS level, but has 16 years of coaching experience.  Hiring a young head coach is a huge risk.  If Polian has early success, he will become the next “Hot Young Coach” and quickly leave for a big paycheck at a big budget program before the television service has even been installed at his home (e.g. Mike MacIntyre).  Thereafter, Nevada will be searching for another head coach and dealing with all of the problems caused by lack of leadership stability.  If Polian does not have early success, the critics will quickly rant that his hiring was irresponsible and demand that he be fired, which may occur.  Again, thereafter, Nevada will be searching for another head coach and dealing with all of the problems caused by lack of leadership stability.  Thus, best case scenario, Nevada has 3-4 years of success before Polian leaves.  Either way, a young head coach is always exciting to watch because a young head coach is intense and innovative.

NOTE: I give a grade of “C” to all rookie coaches and players unless there is cogent evidence that supports a different grade

Offensive Coordinator
Current Tenure as Offensive Coordinator at Nevada: Nick Rolovich is in his second season as the Offensive Coordinator at Nevada.  Rolovich is also the Quarterbacks Coach at Nevada.  Last season, Nevada was ranked #8 in the nation for total offense.

Last Coaching Position: Offensive Coordinator at Hawai’i (2010-2011)

Prior Experience as Offensive Coordinator: Hawai’i (2010-2011)

Other Notable Facts: From 2009 to 2011, Rolovich was the play-caller at Hawai’i.  During that period, Hawai’i accumulated 13,915 total passing yards, averaged 347.9 passing yards per game, and accumulated 96 total passing touchdowns.  In 2010, Hawai’i led the nation in passing offense and was sixth in the nation in total offense.

Defensive Coordinator
Current Tenure as Defensive Coordinator at Nevada: Scottie Hazelton is in his first season as the Defensive Coordinator at Nevada.  Hazelton is also the Linebackers Coach at Nevada.  Hazelton is facing the challenge of improving a defense that was ranked #95 in the nation for total defense last season.

Last Coaching Position: Linebackers Coach at USC (2012)

Prior Experience as Defensive Coordinator: North Dakota State (FCS)(2010-2011), Missouri Southern State (Co-Defensive Coordinator)(D-2)(2004-2005), and Fort Lewis College (Interim Defensive Coordinator)(D-2)(1998)

Other Notable Facts: Hazelton was the Defensive Coordinator (and the Linebackers Coach) on the North Dakota State team that won the 2011 FCS National Championship

Special Teams Coordinator
Current Tenure as Special Teams Coordinator at Nevada: Lester Erb is in his first season as the Special Teams Coordinator at Nevada

Last Coaching Position: Running Backs Coach and “Special Teams Coach” at Iowa (2008-2012)

Prior Experience as Special Teams Coordinator: None noted, but “Special Teams Coach” at Iowa from 2000-2012

Other Notable Facts: Erb is a highly regarded recruiter

GRADE (Coaching): B minus (C or C plus without Rolovich)


SCHEDULE

Total Home Games: 6
Consecutive Home Games:
§  Week 4 (Hawai’i) and Week 5 (Air Force)
§  Week 12 (San Jose State), Week 13 (Bye Week), and Week 14 (BYU)

Total Away Games: 6
Consecutive Away Games:
§  Week 6 (at San Diego State), Week 7 (Bye Week), and Week 8 (at Boise State)
§  Week 10 (at Fresno State) and Week 11 (at Colorado State)

Bye Weeks:
§  Week 7 (October 8, 2013 through October 14, 2013)
§  Week 13 (November 19, 2013 through November 25, 2013)

MWC Non-Division Games (i.e. games against MWC Mountain Division Teams):
§  Week 5 (Home vs. Air Force)
§  Week 8 (Away at Boise State)
§  Week 11 (Away at Colorado State)

Week 1: Nevada at UCLA
Game #: 1
Game Date: Saturday, August 31, 2013
Kickoff Time: 7:00pm PT
Stadium: The Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA)
Elevation of Stadium: effectively sea level
Elevation Change for Nevada: decrease by 3,785 feet
Travel Distance for Nevada: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for Nevada: none
Field Surface: grass
Weather: insignificant (night game in late August), but smog may be problematic, seriously
Stadium Noise: moderate to high

Week 2: UC Davis (FCS) at Nevada
Game #: 2
Game Date: Saturday, September 7, 2013
Kickoff Time: TBA
Stadium: Chris Ault Field at Mackay Stadium (Reno, NV)
Elevation of Stadium: 4,610 feet
Elevation Change for UC Davis: increase by 4,560 feet
Travel Distance for UC Davis: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for UC Davis: none
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: (kickoff time is TBA) temperature may be in the upper 90’s during the daytime
Stadium Noise: moderate
Commentary: Mackay Stadium will be renamed Chris Ault Field at Mackay Stadium.  Great road trip for UC Davis fans!

Week 3: Nevada at Florida State
Game #: 3
Game Date: Saturday, September 14, 2013
Kickoff Time: 3:30pm ET (12:30pm PT)
Stadium: Bobby Bowden Field at Doak S. Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, FL)
Elevation of Stadium: effectively sea level
Elevation Change for Nevada: decrease by 4,410 feet
Travel Distance for Nevada: 2,093 miles (flight time is approximately 4 ½ hours)
Time Change for Nevada: increase by 3 hours (PT to ET)
Field Surface: grass
Weather: temperature may be in the 90’s at kickoff (3:30pm ET); humidity may exacerbate heat
Stadium Noise: high
Commentary: Some younger Nevada players may have difficulty with jet lag and time change

Week 4: Hawai’i at Nevada (MWC West Division Game)
Game #: 4
Game Date: Saturday, September 21, 2013
Kickoff Time: 5:05 pm PT (3:05pm HT)
Stadium: Chris Ault Field at Mackay Stadium (Reno, NV)
Elevation of Stadium: 4,610 feet
Elevation Change for Hawai’i: increase by 4,570 feet
Travel Distance for Hawai’i: 2,568 miles (flight time is approximately 5 hours)
Time Change for Hawai’i: increase by 2 hours (HT to PT)
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: temperature may be in the 90’s at kickoff (5:05pm PT), but will cool during the game
Stadium Noise: moderate to high
Commentary: Nevada has a long trip and difficult game at Florida State in the prior week (Week 3)

Week 5: Air Force at Nevada
Game #: 5
Game Date: Saturday, September 28, 2013
Kickoff Time: 4:30 pm PT (5:30 pm MT)
Stadium: Chris Ault Field at Mackay Stadium (Reno, NV)
Elevation of Stadium: 4,610 feet
Elevation Change for Air Force: decrease by 2,011 feet
Travel Distance for Air Force: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for Air Force: decrease by 1 hour (MT to PT)
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: temperature may be in the lower 90’s at kickoff (4:30pm PT), but will cool during the game
Stadium Noise: moderate to high

Week 6: Nevada at San Diego State (MWC West Division Game)
Game #: 6
Game Date: Friday, October 4, 2013
Kickoff Time: 6:00pm PT
Stadium: Qualcomm Stadium (San Diego, CA)
Elevation of Stadium: effectively sea level
Elevation Change for Nevada: decrease by 4,535 feet
Travel Distance for Nevada: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for Nevada: none
Field Surface: grass
Weather: insignificant (night game in San Diego)(Bring an umbrella for cover from the Seagulls!)
Stadium Noise: moderate

Week 7: October 8, 2013 through October 14, 2013
BYE WEEK

Week 8: Nevada at Boise State
Game #: 7
Game Date: Saturday, October 19, 2013
Kickoff Time: 6:00pm MT (5:00pm PT)
Stadium: Bronco Stadium (Boise, ID)
Elevation of Stadium: 2,695 feet
Elevation Change for Nevada: decrease by 1,915 feet
Travel Distance for Nevada: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for Nevada: increase by 1 hour (PT to MT)
Field Surface: artificial (Blue FieldTurf)
Weather: temperature could drop to the 40’s by the end of the game
Stadium Noise: high
Commentary: Nevada will have an extra week to prepare for this game because Nevada has a bye in the prior week (Week 7)

Week 9: UNLV at Nevada (MWC West Division Game)
Game #: 8
Game Date: Saturday, October 26, 2013
Kickoff Time: TBA
Stadium: Chris Ault Field at Mackay Stadium (Reno, NV)
Elevation of Stadium: 4,610 feet
Elevation Change for UNLV: increase by 3,010 feet
Travel Distance for UNLV: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for UNLV: none
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: (kickoff time TBA) temperature could drop to the 40’s by nighttime
Stadium Noise: high
Commentary: Rivalry game

Week 10: Nevada at Fresno State (MWC West Division Game)
Game #: 9
Game Date: Saturday, November 2, 2013
Kickoff Time: 4:00pm PT
Stadium: Bulldog Stadium (Fresno, CA)
Elevation of Stadium: effectively sea level
Elevation Change for Nevada: decrease by 4,275 feet
Travel Distance for Nevada: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for Nevada: none
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: insignificant (late afternoon game in early November)
Stadium Noise: moderate to high
Commentary: Nevada plays rival UNLV in the prior week (Week 9)

Week 11: Nevada at Colorado State
Game #: 10
Game Date: Saturday, November 9, 2013
Kickoff Time: TBA
Stadium: Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium (Fort Collins, CO)
Elevation of Stadium: 5,190 feet
Elevation Change for Nevada: insignificant (less than 1,000 feet)
Travel Distance for Nevada: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for Nevada: increase by 1 hour (PT to MT)
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: (kickoff time is TBA) Temperature may be in the 30’s by nighttime, but Nevada practices in similar weather in Reno.  Possible snow on the ground; possible snow before and/or during game.
Stadium Noise: moderate

Week 12: San Jose State at Nevada (MWC West Division Game)
Game #: 11
Game Date: Saturday, November 16, 2013
Kickoff Time: TBA
Stadium: Chris Ault Field at Mackay Stadium (Reno, NV)
Elevation of Stadium: 4,610 feet
Elevation Change for SJSU: increase by 4,525 feet
Travel Distance for SJSU: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for SJSU: none
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: (kickoff time TBA) Temperature may be in the 30’s by nighttime.  Possible snow on the ground; possible snow before and/or during game.
Stadium Noise: moderate
Commentary: Cold weather may be a problem for younger SJSU players who may have little or no experience playing in cold weather.  SJSU has a significant elevation increase of 4,525 feet that will likely have an adverse effect in the 4th quarter, especially on SJSU linemen.

Week 13: November 19, 2013 through November 25, 2013
BYE WEEK

Week 14: BYU at Nevada
Game #: 12
Game Date: Saturday, November 30, 2013
Kickoff Time: Noon PT (1:00pm MT)
Stadium: Chris Ault Field at Mackay Stadium (Reno, NV)
Elevation of Stadium: 4,610 feet
Elevation Change for BYU: insignificant (less than 1,000 feet)
Travel Distance for BYU: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for BYU: decrease by 1 hour (MT to PT)
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: Temperature may be in the 40’s at kickoff (Noon PT), but BYU practices in similar weather in Provo.  Possible snow on the ground; possible snow before and/or during game.
Stadium Noise: high
Commentary: Remember, the Mormons are only in the casino to eat at the buffet J

GRADE (higher grade indicates favorable schedule): B plus



NOTE: Grading Standards: Grades are based on a national scale.  Unlike modern academia, my grades are not inflated.  A grade of “C” is average.  A grade of “C” is neither good nor bad; it is simply average.  A grade of “A” or “F” is rare.

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