Thursday, July 18, 2013

AIR FORCE FOOTBALL: 2013 PRE-SEASON REPORT CARD


PUBLICATION ORDER: Sections of the Pre-Season Report Card are published in following order: (1) Schedule; (2) Coaching; (3) Momentum (4) Discipline On The Field (i.e. penalties); (5) Turnovers; (6) Special Teams; (7) Defense; (8) Offense; and (9) Summary.


TURNOVERS

Rationale: The past does not always predict the future, but the past often predicts the future

Team Recovered Turnovers (i.e. Gained Turnovers)
[2012 Team Statistic: Recovered Fumbles] 8 total recovered fumbles (0.6 pgp)
[2012 Team Statistic: Caught Interceptions] 8 total caught interceptions (0.6 pgp)
[2012 Team Statistic: Combined Recovered Turnovers (fumbles plus interceptions)] 16 total combined recovered turnovers (1.2 pgp)

Team Lost Turnovers
[2012 Team Statistic: Lost Fumbles] 21 total lost fumbles (1.6 pgp)
[2012 Team Statistic: Thrown Interceptions] 8 total thrown interceptions (0.6 pgp)
[2012 Team Statistic: Combined Lost Turnovers (fumbles plus interceptions)] 29 total combined lost turnovers (2.2 pgp)

NOTE: Air Force does not have a returning starter at quarterback

Team Combined Net Turnovers [(Recovered Turnovers) minus (Lost Turnovers)]
[2012 Team Statistic: Combined Net Turnovers] negative 13 combined net turnovers (negative 1.0 pgp)

GRADE (Turnovers): D plus


DISCIPLINE ON THE FIELD

Rationale: The past does not always predict the future, but the past often predicts the future

Team Penalties
[2012 Team Statistic] 44 total penalties (3.4 pgp)
[2012 Team Statistic] 341 total penalty yards (26.2 pgp)

GRADE (Discipline on the field): A


MOMENTUM

Momentum: Last season, Air Force lost 4 of their final 5 games, including a 14-33 loss to Rice in the Armed Forces Bowl, and finished with an overall record of 6-7.

GRADE (Momentum): D plus


COACHING

Head Coach
Current Tenure as Head Coach at Air Force: Troy Calhoun is in his seventh season as the Head Coach at Air Force.  Calhoun has an overall record of 47-31 (60.3% wins) as the Head Coach at Air Force.  In 2007, Calhoun’s first season as the Head Coach at Air Force, Calhoun was named MWC Coach of the Year.

Last Coaching Position: Offensive Coordinator and Quarterbacks Coach for Houston Texans (2006)

Prior Experience as Head Coach: None

Other Notable Facts: From 1985 to 1988, Calhoun played quarterback at Air Force

Offensive Coordinator
The Air Force website lists 3 offensive coordinators: Mike Thiessen, Blane Morgan, and Clay Hendrix.  Each is listed as having been the Offensive Coordinator at Air Force for multiple years.  Last season, the Air Force offense was ranked #51 in the nation for total offense.

In my opinion, co-coordinators are less effective than a single coordinator.  Co-leaders are less effective than a single leader because co-leaders often disagree, which causes internal conflict that may lead to a power struggle, and co-leaders often communicate inconsistent messages to subordinates.

Defensive Coordinator
The Air Force website lists 2 defensive coordinators: Charlton Warren and Steve Russ.  Both are in their second season as the Defensive Coordinator at Air Force.  Last season, the Air Force defense was ranked #72 in the nation for total defense.

Again, in my opinion, co-coordinators are less effective than a single coordinator.  Co-leaders are less effective than a single leader because co-leaders often disagree, which causes internal conflict that may lead to a power struggle, and co-leaders often communicate inconsistent messages to subordinates.

Special Teams Coordinator
Current Tenure as Special Teams Coordinator at Air Force: Ben Miller is in his third season as the Special Teams Coordinator at Air Force.  Miller is also in his first season as the Running Backs Coach at Air Force.

Last Coaching Position: Tight Ends Coach at Air Force (2008 to 2012)

Prior Experience as Special Teams Coordinator: None

Other Notable Facts: Miller has coached Ryan Harrison (2008 semifinalist for Lou Groza Award) and Parker Herrington (2011 First-Team All-MWC Placekicker).  Miller played offensive line at Air Force and earned all-conference honors.  Miller’s experience playing on the offensive line and coaching tight ends are valuable for coaching special teams blocking techniques and schemes.

GRADE (Coaching): C


SCHEDULE

Total Home Games: 7
Consecutive Home Games:
§  Week 1 (Colgate (FCS)) and Week 2 (Utah State)
§  Week 7 (San Diego State), Week 8 (Bye Week), Week 9 (Notre Dame), and Week 10 (Army)

Total Away Games: 5
Consecutive Away Games:
§  Week 5 (at Nevada) and Week 6 (at Navy)

Bye Weeks:
§  Week 8 (October 15, 2013 through October 21, 2013)
§  Week 12 (November 12, 2013 through November 18, 2013)

MWC Non-Division Games (i.e. games against MWC West Division Teams):
§  Week 5 (Away at Nevada)
§  Week 7 (Home vs. San Diego State)
§  Week 13 (Home vs. UNLV)

Week 1: Colgate (FCS) at Air Force
Game #: 1
Game Date: Saturday, August 31, 2013
Kickoff Time: TBA
Stadium: Falcon Stadium (near Colorado Springs, CO)
Elevation of Stadium: 6,621 feet
Elevation Change for Colgate: increase by 5,495 feet
Travel Distance for Colgate: 1,546 miles (flight time is approximately 3 ½ hours)
Time Change for Colgate: decrease by 2 hours (ET to MT)
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: (kickoff time is TBA) temperature could reach 90 degrees during the afternoon
Stadium Noise: low

Week 2: Utah State at Air Force (MWC Mountain Division Game)
Game #: 2
Game Date: Saturday, September 7, 2013
Kickoff Time: 1:30pm MT
Stadium: Falcon Stadium (near Colorado Springs, CO)
Elevation of Stadium: 6,621 feet
Elevation Change for Utah State: increase by 1,911 feet
Travel Distance for Utah State: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for Utah State: none
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: temperature could reach 90 degrees by end of game
Stadium Noise: moderate
Commentary: Utah State plays rival Utah in the prior week (Week 1)

Week 3: Air Force at Boise State (MWC Mountain Division Game)
Game #: 3
Game Date: Friday, September 13, 2013
Kickoff Time: 6:00pm MT
Stadium: Bronco Stadium (Boise, ID)
Elevation of Stadium: 2,695 feet
Elevation Change for Air Force: decrease by 3,926 feet
Travel Distance for Air Force: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for Air Force: none
Field Surface: artificial (Blue FieldTurf)
Weather: insignificant (night game in September)
Stadium Noise: moderate to high

Week 4: Wyoming at Air Force (Howdy Doody Bowl)(MWC Mountain Division Game)
Game #: 4
Game Date: Saturday, September 21, 2013
Kickoff Time: TBA
Stadium: Falcon Stadium (near Colorado Springs, CO)
Elevation of Stadium: 6,621 feet
Elevation Change for Wyoming: insignificant (less than 1,000 feet)
Travel Distance for Wyoming: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for Wyoming: none
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: (kickoff time is TBA) temperature could reach 90 degrees during the afternoon
Stadium Noise: moderate
Commentary: Last season, both Air Force Head Coach Troy Calhoun and Wyoming Head Coach Dave Christensen engaged in “conduct unbecoming” of a head football coach.  Their conduct was most offensive because both coaches would surely severely berate and punish their players for similar conduct.

Week 5: Air Force at Nevada
Game #: 5
Game Date: Saturday, September 28, 2013
Kickoff Time: 4:30 pm PT (5:30 pm MT)
Stadium: Chris Ault Field at Mackay Stadium (Reno, NV)
Elevation of Stadium: 4,610 feet
Elevation Change for Air Force: decrease by 2,011 feet
Travel Distance for Air Force: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for Air Force: decrease by 1 hour (MT to PT)
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: temperature may be in the lower 90’s at kickoff (4:30pm PT), but will cool during the game
Stadium Noise: moderate to high

Week 6: Air Force at Navy
Game #: 6
Game Date: Saturday, October 5, 2013
Kickoff Time: 11:30am ET (9:30am MT)
Stadium: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, MD)
Elevation of Stadium: effectively sea level
Elevation Change for Air Force: decrease by 6,581 feet
Travel Distance for Air Force: 1,515 miles (flight time is approximately 3 hours)(only 1 hour if Air Force players hitch a ride on an F-22 Raptor: http://www.af.mil/information/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=199)
Time Change for Air Force: increase by 2 hours (MT to ET)
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: possible rain
Stadium Noise: moderate to high
Commentary: Early kickoff time will not have an adverse effect on Air Force players.  9:30am MT (11:30am ET) for Air Force players is like afternoon for civilians.

Week 7: San Diego State at Air Force
Game #: 7
Game Date: Thursday, October 10, 2013
Kickoff Time: 7:00pm MT (6:00pm PT)
Stadium: Falcon Stadium (near Colorado Springs, CO)
Elevation of Stadium: 6,621 feet
Elevation Change for SDSU: increase by 6,546 feet
Travel Distance for SDSU: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for SDSU: increase by 1 hour (PT to MT)
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: temperature could drop down to the 40’s by the end of the game
Stadium Noise: moderate
Commentary: Air Force is playing this game just 5 days after traveling 1,515 miles home from Annapolis.  Consequently, Air Force may use a simplified game plan that SDSU can exploit with new, complex plays.  SDSU has a significant elevation increase of 6,546 feet that will likely have an adverse effect in the 4th quarter, especially on SDSU linemen.   Moreover, in the 4th quarter, there could be a significant momentum shift in favor of Air Force based on the elevation change for SDSU and extremely high stamina of Air Force players, including Air Force linemen.  In the 4th quarter, Air Force players will be running strong while some SDSU players are running out of gas.  SDSU has one day less than a full week to prepare for this game because SDSU has a game on Friday in the prior week (Week 6).

Week 8: October 15, 2013 through October 21, 2013
BYE WEEK

Week 9: Notre Dame at Air Force
Game #: 8
Game Date: Saturday, October 26, 2013
Kickoff Time: 3:00pm MT (5:00 pm ET)
Stadium: Falcon Stadium (near Colorado Springs, CO)
Elevation of Stadium: 6,621 feet
Elevation Change for Notre Dame: increase by 5,896 feet
Travel Distance for Notre Dame: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for Notre Dame: decrease by 2 hours (ET to MT)
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: insignificant
Stadium Noise: moderate to high
Commentary: Last season, Notre Dame was embarrassed in the National Championship Game.  Notre Dame has a significant elevation increase of 5,896 feet that will likely have an adverse effect in the 4th quarter, especially on Notre Dame linemen.

Week 10: Army at Air Force
Game #: 9
Game Date: Saturday, November 2, 2013
Kickoff Time: TBA
Stadium: Falcon Stadium (near Colorado Springs, CO)
Elevation of Stadium: 6,621 feet
Elevation Change for Army: increase by 6,460 feet
Travel Distance for Army: 1,630 miles (flight time is approximately 3 ½ hours)(I doubt that Air Force would be intimidated if Army arrived in attack helicopters, but it would be cool to watch.  Besides, the flight time would be approximately 9 hours in a helicopter.)
Time Change for Army: decrease by 2 hours (ET to MT)
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: (kickoff time is TBA) temperature could drop down to the 30’s after sunset
Stadium Noise: high
Commentary: Although Army has a significant elevation increase of 6,460 feet, the elevation change will not have any adverse effect on Army players because all players at service academies have extremely high stamina.

Week 11: Air Force at New Mexico (MWC Mountain Division Game)
Game #: 10
Game Date: Friday, November 8, 2013
Kickoff Time: 7:00pm MT
Stadium: University Stadium (Albuquerque, NM)
Elevation of Stadium: 5,100 feet
Elevation Change for Air Force: decrease by 1,521 feet
Travel Distance for Air Force: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for Air Force: none
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: temperature could drop down to the 30’s by the end of the game; possible snow on the ground; possible snow before and/or during game
Stadium Noise: moderate

Week 12: November 12, 2013 through November 18, 2013
BYE WEEK

Week 13: UNLV at Air Force
Game #: 11
Game Date: Thursday, November 21, 2013
Kickoff Time: 7:30pm MT (6:30pm PT)
Stadium: Falcon Stadium (near Colorado Springs, CO)
Elevation of Stadium: 6,621 feet
Elevation Change for UNLV: increase by 5,021 feet
Travel Distance for UNLV: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for UNLV: increase by 1 hour (PT to MT)
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: temperature could drop down to the 20’s by the end of the game; possible light snow before or during game
Stadium Noise: moderate
Commentary: UNLV will be dealing with both a significant elevation increase (5,021 feet) and significant temperature decrease (approximately 40 degrees).  Moreover, most UNLV players have significant experience playing in hot weather, but little or no experience playing in cold weather.  Last season, UNLV played VERY poorly in cold weather.  Neither Air Force nor UNLV will be adversely affected by the short week (Thursday game) because both teams have a bye in the prior week (Week 12).

Week 14: Air Force at Colorado State (MWC Mountain Division Game)
Game #: 12
Game Date: Saturday, November 30, 2013
Kickoff Time: TBA
Stadium: Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium (Fort Collins, CO)
Elevation of Stadium: 5,190 feet
Elevation Change for Air Force: decrease by 1,431 feet
Travel Distance for Air Force: insignificant (less than 1,000 miles)
Time Change for Air Force: none
Field Surface: artificial (FieldTurf)
Weather: (kickoff time is TBA) temperature could drop down to the 20’s after sunset; likely snow on the ground; possible snow before or during game
Stadium Noise: moderate

GRADE (higher grade indicates favorable schedule): A

NOTE: Grading Standards: Grades are based on a national scale.  Unlike modern academia, my grades are not inflated.  A grade of “C” is average.  A grade of “C” is neither good nor bad; it is simply average.  A grade of “A” or “F” is rare.

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